«Ο πόλεμος είναι η αιτία της ήττας μας», έγραψε σε ένα μακροσκελές μήνυμα στο X, προσθέτοντας: «Όλοι γνωρίζουν γιατί χάσαμε. Και κάθε ειλικρινής συζήτηση για την πορεία προς τα εμπρός πρέπει τώρα να ξεκινήσει από εκεί».
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was “composition”—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? “No,” he told me. “We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.”
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many…
