The success rate that, under current conditions, could “unlock” an exploration drilling in Greece is estimated at 15%–20%, given that the lack of recent drilling data lowers the acceptable risk threshold compared with mature markets such as Norway or the United Kingdom.
“An exploration well is typically undertaken with a 15%-20% chance of success,” sources with in-depth knowledge of the sector noted, clarifying that this figure may vary by region and over time. Under current conditions, and given that the last offshore drilling in Greece was carried out in 1982 in Katakolo, a success rate in the 15%–20% range is considered sufficient for an exploration well.
In more mature markets, however, such as Norway, the United Kingdom or the United States, success rates can rise to as high as 35%, as the greater volume of drilling data provides a much clearer understanding of geological structures and, consequently, of the level of risk considered acceptable.
In Greece, similarly, the risk profile may be revised upwards or downwards depending on the progress of the hydrocarbons exploration programme.
Drilling rig charter
For the time being, according to statements made by Energean Chief Executive Officer Mathios Rigas at the signing ceremony for the charter agreement of the Stena DrillMAX drilling rig, the estimated success rate for the planned February 2027 exploration well in the northwestern Ionian Sea, at the “Asopos 1” target, is placed at 16%, with available data…
